Former President Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in at least one betting market after receiving a surprise boost as the Democratic National Convention (DNC) continues in Chicago.
Trump, who was surpassed by Harris in the prediction markets a week ago, has regained his position as the frontrunner on PolyMarket, where traders on Wednesday gave him a 52% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election.
Harris' odds dropped to 47%. Last week, the site had Harris beating Trump, 51% to 46%.
Model update:
— Harry Crane (@HarryDCrane) August 21, 2024
Trump 52.5%
Harris 40.3%
Still some uncertainty because of RFK decision and time until the election.
Significant market moves in the past week. Likely a combination of:
1. Harris releasing economic policies (unpopular)
2. More Harris media exposure.
3. RFK… pic.twitter.com/x91x6GAeXR
