North Korea Knowns and Unknowns

No one really knows all that much about North Korea's nuclear or conventional military capability or its strategic agenda. Are its nuclear missiles reliably lethal, are they as long-ranged and accurate as hyped, and are they under secure command and control?

Conventional wisdom states that Seoul would be destroyed in minutes by at least 10,000 North Korean artillery and rocket batteries that are now aimed from right across the Demilitarized Zone. Such guns are said to be capable of firing 500,000 rounds within a few minutes.

As a result, South Korea and its allies are supposed to be veritable hostages, with no strategic choices in countering North Korea's newly enhanced nuclear threat.

But is Seoul really being held hostage, and would it be doomed if war broke out?

In fact, no one can be sure of the actual size, nature and readiness of the North Korea arsenal -- or the degree to which it is coordinated and effectively aimed. Much less does anyone know how well North Korea's guns have been pre-targeted by American and South Korean planes, counter-batteries and missiles.

Seoul itself is a huge city of 10 million urban residents. Indeed, greater Seoul and its population of some 24 million are sprawled out over a vast area of more than 250 square miles. The idea that the North Korean military could destroy the world's third-most-populated metropolitan area in minutes with conventional weapons is unproven.

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