Biden surge in red states won’t help Democrats with looming redistricting fights

Map by melnikas1 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

President-elect Joe Biden made major inroads into traditionally Republican territory. But Democratic wins in Arizona and Georgia likely won't extend to the next round of political battle: the redistricting process for House seats heading into the 2022 elections. 

Though Biden soundly beat President Trump to claim the White House, Democratic victories didn't extend to key state legislatures, where lawmakers will draw new districts for Congress lasting a decade. Beyond Georgia and Arizona, Democrats’ efforts to flip legislative chambers in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and elsewhere fell flat.

Meanwhile, the 2020 census is expected to result in Democratic-controlled states like California losing congressional seats and Republican-controlled states gaining them.

That means the president-elect’s administration won’t only face an initial challenge in a possible Republican Senate and a House with a narrower Democratic majority, but Republicans are likely to have an advantage in the 2022 midterm elections. House Democrats may only end up with a slim 222-213 House majority when final races are called. And a change to Republican control would severely hamper Biden’s legislative priorities in the second half of his presidential term.

Map by melnikas1 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0